For this week's blog post I discuss the swarms of locusts that put 5 million people at risk of starvation across East Africa in 2019/2020 (Figure 1).
The 2019/2020 desert locust outbreak wreaked havoc across East Africa, causing significant agricultural losses in an area already vulnerable to food insecurity.
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| Figure 1: Locusts swarm farmland and forested areas near Mount Kenya |
So, how does this link to water? The answer is climate change.
The warming climate has changed weather patterns globally. For East Africa, this has meant experiencing heavy, erratic rainfall and extreme temperatures, arguably because of the increasing temperature of the Indian Ocean (East Coast of Africa) as a consequence of global warming. Rainfall and warmth make the perfect environment for locusts to breed; especially due to enhanced crop growth the locusts are able to feed and continue to reproduce. Weather conditions favouring locust swarm development have been a threat to agricultural productions in East Africa for over 100 years.
Why was this swarm so bad?
Academics believe that East Africa was affected so badly this time round due to socio-political instability. Since 2015, a significant number of countries in East Africa have faced armed conflict and long term insecurity, taking the focus away from any other issues. This meant that some countries involved, such as Kenya, were unable to maintain effective monitoring. Consequently, nations missed early stages of swarm formation and caught on too late - when the swarms were already classed as a plague.
Now, let’s talk about Kenya.
“They had no equipment, no expertise, no pesticides, no aircraft, no knowledge,”
- Keith Cressman, the FAO’s senior locust forecaster.
Kenya was caught off guard. Having not had a swarm this bad for over 70 years, it is fair to say the nation was unprepared. Quite rightly, considering the threat was seen originally as significantly far from home. The 2018 cyclones of Arabia began the growth of the swarm in the Middle East, and it was not until extreme winds in 2019 that the locusts were blown over the Red Sea to East Africa causing widespread agricultural damage and food insecurity (Figure 2). In 2019, the locust swarm destroyed 70,000ha of farmland in Somalia and Ethiopia, and 2,400 km of pasture land in Kenya.
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| Figure 2: Food insecurity drivers in East Africa, March 2020. |
Kenya threw what they could at the problem - pesticides. Spraying thousands of litres of deltamethrin and hundreds of litres of insecticides, such as chlorpyrifos and fipronal across their fields, many of which are chemicals banned in Europe. Shockingly, in Samburu, there was a case where 34x the recommended dosage of pesticide was sprayed killing bees, beetles and countless numbers of crops.
More than a year after the FAO intervened with this detrimental use of pesticides, their assessment of the environmental impacts has not been released to the public. The World Bank found the environmental risks to be “substantial”. Considering a swarm is able to consume the same amount of food a day as 35,000 people and over 5 million people were facing acute food insecurity at the time, you would probably ‘panic spray’ pesticides too (Figure 3). Without any control measures, the locusts can take millions of dollars and many years to eradicate. In fact, the FAO predicted, without any intervention East Africa would have lost up to 70% of their cereal harvest.
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| Figure 3: A tweet made by the FAO in June 2020 to spread awareness about the locust swarm |
By contrast to Kenya, Somalia relied on insect growth regulators and biopesticides to combat the swarm. Such methods have little damage on the environment or the public's health. The biopesticide in use, Metarhizium acridum, competes with the locusts for water and nutrients, rather than harming them directly.
Whilst the current fight is over, the future does not look bright. The effects of the pesticide use are still unknown and the seas are still getting warmer. Warming seas lead to frequent cyclones, increased rainfall and create the perfect conditions for locust breeding. It is evident that Kenya, and the rest of East Africa, have to prepare for the worst in order to protect their food supplies and be able to feed their people.
The contrast between approaches in Kenya and Somalia, and their relative efficacies, was especially interesting. Are there any FAO-recommend approaches that you found?
ReplyDeleteHi Emma, yes the FAO have systems in place to assist countries during locust invasions. My research evidences that the FAO often takes on monitoring global locust formations and tracks their movements. They operate a centralised Desert Locust information service to inform affected countries with timely warnings and predictions when there is a risk of invasion. This can be achieved because all the countries affected by locust infestations supposedly send data to the FAO which the FAO assess and provides predictions for up to 6 weeks in advance. In fact, the FAO has been preparing monthly bulletins since 1978, to update the world on upcoming situations. The organisation provides training, field assessments and control operations whilst also lending extra pairs of hands during locust plagues.
DeleteMore than this, the FAO convened body ‘The Pesticide Referee Group’ have recommended 10 chemical pesticides and a biopesticide to combat Desert Locust. This group is constructed of independent experts who are responsible of advising the FAO in the efficacy and environmental impacts of the pesticides used in locust invasions. The FAO claim to encourage countries to use different methods to chemical pesticides, however the recommendations (10 pesticides vs 1 biopesticide) made by their governing body seem to go against this statement.
I recommend this article : https://www.fao.org/news/story/en/item/1364821/icode/ for more information on the FAOs efforts in the recent East Africa swarm.
This is a good attempt at teasing out complex intersection of climate change, food insecurity and water in east Africa, and a well presented diaoluge on the experience in Kenya, while contrasting Somalia. Good engagement with literature and references are well embeded. I would like to learn more about local approached to locust management but also how changing rainfall patterns are affecting crops that are succeptibel to locust.
ReplyDeleteThank you Clement! To answer the first part of your question there are a varied number of local approaches to locust management, all seem to have NGO or IGO support. I will illustrate some that stood out to me in my research with respect to Somalia.
DeleteSomalia has Desert Locust Units operating out of Hargeisa, Garowe and Guriel which are understaffed. They lack the resources to conduct field surveys, certified DLIOs to locally analyse incoming information, and enough well-trained scouts and other partners to carry out fieldwork with local communities. The information gathered and analysed through this service are central to ongoing regional efforts in combating desert locust but are currently not sufficient enough.
The FAO in particular was monitoring the situation using its Desert Locust Information Service, Somalia Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit and Somalia Water and Land Information Management teams. The organisation worked in collaboration with Somalia Federal and State Ministries of Agriculture and Irrigation Development and Desert Locust Units in northern Somalia.
Check out this document for a more detailed outline of the Somalia Action Plan
https://fscluster.org/sites/default/files/documents/fao_somalia_action_plan_desert_locust_crisis_appeal_april_update_.pdf
Alternatively to Somalia, Kenya’s localised management plans are primarily all dominated by pesticide use opposed to surveillance methods.
Clement, next I will address your question on rainfall patterns and crops susceptible to locust. The desert locusts seen here are often restricted to the semi-arid and arid deserts in Africa where less than 200mm of rain falls annually. A hotter climate means more damaging locust swarms, and with 20 of the fastest warming countries being in Africa, the continent is disproportionately affected. Along with a changing climate comes erratic rainfall. From October to December 2019 rainfall in East Africa was over 400% higher than the typical amount. This unusual occurrence has been attributed to the Indian Ocean dipole, which has been accentuated by the changing climate.
DeleteFor crops this increase in rainfall means facing food security concerns in the near future. In Kenya crops such as avocado, mango, and pawpaw trees were demolished during the locust swarms and are already severely susceptible to drowning following waterlogging from heavy rainfall. Staple crops for East Africa include maize, rice, potatoes, bananas, cassava, wheat, sorghum, millet and pulses of which all are unable to withstand heavy rainfall and are classed as susceptible to locust.
I hope this answers the questions you have raised!
I found your post ver interesting and in particular the idea that as with climate change, African nations missed early stages of swarm formation and caught on too late, when the swarms were already classed as a plague. Because of this the swarm in Kenya could consume the same amount of food as 35,000! This just demonstrates the importance of acting fast.
ReplyDelete